Numbers Are Tools, Not Answers
Be data driven, don't let data drive you
‘Data-driven’ feels safe.
And Americans have developed numbers into a crutch for decision-making.
If you never make a judgement from your human brain, you never have to carry the weight of being wrong
“No, it wasn’t me, our data wasn’t very good” becomes a shield—not against actually making bad decisions; it becomes a shield against damaged pride.
But—like Benn Stancil—I’m not sure the entire idea of being ‘data driven’ will survive the chaos machine of reality
Numbers as Tools, Not Answers: Rethinking the Culture of ‘Data-Driven’ Decisions
In today’s marketing landscape, numbers reign supreme. Full stop.
It’s an inversion from business years of yore1.
In the past, businessmen might have a little data and a lot of judgement.
And now we have a ton more data. A 250x growth in less than 20 years!
Surely with all that data, we must be more confident about our strategic business decisions.
I bet by 2030, we won’t even have to worry about big companies going bankrupt! They’ll have such advanced analytics that it would be impossible.2
Thats not the case though…
Now you’re lucky if you nail a consultant3 down to a yes-or-no answer without at least one caveat about data.
Rather than tools for guidance—lighthouses in the darkness leading us away from danger—numbers are increasingly treated as definitive answers.
Without a human judgment at the wheel, data-driven-alone leads to flawed strategies and misaligned goals.
This post explores why numbers should inform but not dictate your strategic business decisions.
The limits of experimentation?
Lets start with an example to the extreme and work backwards
In psychology experiments, researchers will often take information from a small group and extrapolate out to the real world.
For example, you’ll hear people cite the Milgram experiments to argue that people will obey the voice of authority over an internal moral compass.
Ok, that sounds like a valid extrapolation from experimental data.
But 100% of all experiment subjects listened to authority unquestioningly—can we still extrapolate and assume that humanity is 100% pliable?
Obviously not—there are people who do refuse to obey authority in real life—under the risk of actual consequences!
Back to Business Examples
If your marketing data analyst suggests that you should stop all brand marketing (hard to measure) in favor of performance marketing (easy to measure), do you take that offer?
The analysis might be statistically valid along all the important dimensions. But is it possible that you’re heading into a brand death spiral?
If your AI system tells you with 100% confidence to sell your company and put the money on green, do you do it?
You’d be a fool if you listened unquestioning. You wouldn’t be a functioning captain of business—you’d have made yourself an NPC.
If you value only what is easy to measure, you’re not measuring what is valuable.
These values aren’t obvious, but are everywhere implicitly
As Benn Stancil described the (likely) environment at Nike4:
Rather than favoring the highest-paid person’s opinion, we favor the SWAN (Suggestion With A lot of Numbers), almost regardless of what those numbers say.
The effect of this isn’t to mindlessly optimize the stuff that we can measure, but to assign a certain amount of truth to arguments made with measurements. I doubt that Nike focused on Nike.com memberships and forgot about “brand magic” because they could easily measure the first one and not the second one.
I do suspect, however, that the team that was working on Nike.com memberships could make a lot of compelling arguments about corporate strategy that the team working on brand magic could not.
When both teams are pitching their ideas, they are pitching things that probably sound like good ideas, but might be bad ideas.
But if the memberships team can make their pitch with numbers and forecasts and statistics, it sounds less like an opinion and more like a fact.
Nike is a was a business case study in how to do brand marketing.
“Just Do It” is an iconic tagline that follows athletic prowess like an echo follows a clap.
Did they all of a sudden forget brand marketing? Probably not.
But the inches on the battlefield that numbers gave the performance marketing team ended up changing the shape of the war.
You can lead someone precisely to hell, but it’s harder to do for heaven.
It would be impossible to tell someone how to be happy—but it’s sure easy to tell someone how to be miserable.
As discussed in last week’s post, the dream of precision in marketing data has come true—but it’s a double-edged sword.
Digital marketing is built on trust in data, but that trust is often misplaced.
The obsession with granular metrics creates a mirage of certainty, masking the limits of what data alone can reveal.
Last week, I covered the scale of intentional deception—one form of lying numbers. And luckily a savvy marketer will already know about ad fraud and will be running audits regularly.
But at the end of the day, ALL data is a proxy for something5
The problem isn’t the data itself—it’s the interpretation.
An experienced businessman will know when to listen to numerical analysis—but he will also know when to ignore more data and just make a decision.
Numbers are inherently neutral.
They only gain meaning when paired with human insight.
Why has our culture fallen for ‘data-driven’?
Being data-driven feels safe.
No one wants to put their neck on the line, and data promises that no one ever does.
Numbers provide a veneer of objectivity, giving leaders the (misguided) confidence that they’re making rational choices.
But this reliance can lead to oversights.
Hyper-focusing on one metric risks the "cobra effect," where short-term wins undercut sustainable progress towards a goal..
Numbers should guide us like a compass, not a GPS.
If your data suggests something absurd you shouldn’t follow it blindly.6
This is where human judgment must intervene.
What should I do?
Focus on Outcomes, Not Outputs
Numbers should measure meaningful outcomes, not vanity metrics.Projections are useful, but you shouldn’t create a culture where you live or die by the cursor. After all, refining numbers doesn’t always mean finding the truth.
Use Data to Inform, Not Dictate
Data should enhance decision-making, not replace it. Without critical thinking, even the best data leads to poor decisions.Don’t Be Afraid of Risks
If you’re not able to make the leap, you shouldn’t be in charge of the careers of other people.
The torment of precautions often exceeds the dangers to be avoided. It is sometimes better to abandon one's self to destiny.
of long ago or former times (used in nostalgic or mock-nostalgic recollection).
"my companions recounted battles of yore", from Oxford Languages
For people reading after the inevitable economic downturn somewhere between now and the end of time, this was a joke.
I am guilty of this.
And with a niche but apt reference to Baudrillard’s fable of the map.
filtered through the lense of measurement and reality.
Despite whatever tech bros say, you should never replace an experienced leadership team with a new tech tool.