The Golden Rule
Marketing can be confusing—but it doesn’t have to be.
Despite the labyrinth of marketing terminologies—was this campaign working at demand gen or demand capture? What was the ROAS for this XYZ KPI? Do we have OKRs for this?—All of marketing can be boiled down to a single golden rule:
Marketing should create the biggest behavior change for the least investment.
Only engage in marketing activities where the expected return is greater than the total investment.
The sum of expected marketing returns should be greater than the sum of investments.
If marketing is that simple, why does it feel like it’s so hard?
Practical marketing is difficult for two main reasons:
Simple does not mean easy
Private capital distorts incentives
1. Simple ≠ Easy
All of weight loss can be summarized by “eat less”.
Simple? Yes
Easy? Absolutely not
Marketing is the same. It sounds simple until you get to the nitty gritty:
How do you calculate ‘expected return’?
What kind of rate do you pick for your cost of capital?
What should be included in ‘investment’? Employee burnout rate? Just ad spend? What about opportunity cost?
What about brand marketing where return is hard to calculate? What proxy / metric should we use?
How much variable isolation are you willing to do?
What are your constraints from legal?
A good marketing team balances many competing interests. A good team with the right skillsets can be an enormous asset to any company.
Many things in marketing are experience-dependent and
The ultimate success of marketing should lie in its impact on sales.1
2. Real-World Incentives Don’t Align
No one can serve two masters. Either you will hate the one and love the other, or you will be devoted to the one and despise the other
—Matthew 6:24
Private capital distorts incentives.
Modern marketers often find themselves navigating the intricacies of attracting private capital (PC)—in tech, usually venture capital (VC)—for their campaigns as well as trying to strengthen the bottom line. The additional focus on securing funding has, unfortunately, led to a shift in priorities.
V.C.s seem to embody the cynical shape of modern capitalism, which too often rewards crafty middlemen and bombastic charlatans rather than hardworking employees and creative businesspeople.
—Charles Duhigg “How Venture Capitalists Are Deforming Capitalism”
Instead of aiming for the most sales results for the lowest dollar, the emphasis has tilted towards impressing investors. This shift has unintentionally warped our understanding of what good marketing truly means.
This effect is pronounced within sports, where the obvious incentive—pleasing the viewerbase—is subverted by a real incentive—impressing the pool of sports team buyers to improve end sale price.
This bifurcated marketing mindset is most apparent in tech fields and with marketers who’ve only worked in the post-PC market.
In addition to the considerations listed in section 1, marketers now have to deal with their superiors’ worries about funding.
It’s tough to market well. Its tougher when your creative world is constrained to ‘things any private capital wouldn’t find objectionable’. It forces you into the anodyne, pseudo-politician brand persona rather than being able to create unique brand presence.
Contrary to popular belief, the old-school marketers might have been onto something that the modern generation is overlooking—first principles business.
A few good counterexamples
Some companies refuse to sacrifice their branding for a real or imagined private capital investment. They’re willing to be quirky and unique at the expense of being less attractive for being rolled into a larger corporate entity.
I’m not sure if theres something in the water up there, but Maine and Vermont seem to be a hotbed for companies that market in a distinctive, reliably profitable way.
[Maine] L.L. Bean, a 110 year old outdoor clothing retailer, has consistently increased revenue across a broad swath of products—proving a durable brand value and first-principles marketing strategy. Their core marketing mixes a double meaning and bad kerning to say “Bean outsider” (to also read Be an outsider). Their insistence on having a well-defined, if goofy marketing position separates them from the bulk of other outdoor wear companies.
[Vermont] Darn Tough Vermont, a high-end sockmaking company, has seen double-digit revenue growth every year since it began in 2003. It’s rabid focus on ‘making the best sock’ consistently makes loyal customers.2 They wouldn’t have the same customer base if they had abused their brand identity in anticipation of a PC buyout.
[Vermont] King Arthur Baking, a baking goods company, has grown significantly since its founding in 1790—yes 234 years ago. The biggest growth in living memory was during the Covid pandemic. Flour sales increased by nearly 20x. King Arthur responded to the influx of novice bakers by creating on-demand baking tutorials and a ‘baker hotline’ to call if you have questions. Their quirky, creative marketing at the time certainly led to higher customer stickiness.
Conclusion
While PC/VC funding might bring short-term relief, the ultimate success of an advertising campaign lies in its impact on sales. Old marketers understood the value of measuring the effectiveness of an ad by its ability to drive tangible results. The metrics that truly matter include conversion rates, customer acquisition costs, and lifetime customer value.
David Ogilvy once said, "The more informative your advertising, the more persuasive it will be." His advice emphasizes the importance of clarity, directness, and compelling storytelling in marketing. These principles, rooted in the wisdom of old-school marketers—who had to respond to the real-life responses to their work—seem to have taken a back seat in the face of today's VC-driven landscape.
To reclaim the essence of effective marketing, it's time to resurrect the hard-boiled attitude marketers used to have.
This mindset involves a relentless focus on what truly drives sales and results. It encourages marketers to cut through the noise, prioritize substance over style, and adhere to the timeless principles outlined by the advertising greats.
Claude C. Hopkins, a pioneer in the advertising world, provides invaluable insights in his writing on "How to Develop A Hard-Boiled Attitude". He underscores the necessity of adopting a pragmatic approach. In an era where flashy presentations often overshadow substance, a hard-boiled attitude emphasizes results over aesthetics.
As we navigate the fluid landscape of marketing technologies, let's not forget lose sight of the firm principles that remain unchanging.
With a more intentional approach to marketing, we can bridge the gap between old-school wisdom and modern innovation, creating marketing that performs now and against the test of time.
That doesn’t mean every impact should be directly attributable to marketing. Brand marketing is the most obvious example—important, but not necessarily easy to track.
Myself included—I’m wearing Darn Tough socks as I write this